Research and Markets: Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Adaptive Drift Modeling Identifies Periods of Inefficiency and Develops Profitable Forecasting Models
Single Equation Modeling: Sports Gambling Markets.
9. A Fulbright Senior Specialist, Dr. Financial/Mathematical Illiteracy and Adolescent Problem Gambling:
Epidemics More Damaging Than the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.
served as professor of decision sciences at California State University,
Fresno, for more than twenty-five years and has provided consulting
services for government organizations, including the Food and Drug
Administration and Centers for Disease Control.
Key Topics Covered:
Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets
The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets
Cointegrated time series with model drift
Providing valuable insights based on the author’s firsthand experience,
this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify
optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports
gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide
profitable trading and wagering outcomes. The Influenza Futures Markets.
List of Figures.
Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day
financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and
Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing
effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and
adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book
uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate
through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on
irrational behavior exhibited during these periods.
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/508458/forecasting_in_fin
A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets,
with a focus on major current events
DUBLIN–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/508458/forecasting_in_fin)
has announced the addition of John Wiley and Sons Ltd’s new book “Forecasting
in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Adaptive Drift Modeling”
to their offering.
Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent
book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the
upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. Modeling Cointegrated Time Series Associated with NBA and NFL
11. Adaptive Modeling Concepts in Dynamic Markets.
5. Studies in Japanese Candlestick Charts.
6. Featuring detailed examples
that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote
financial and mathematical literacy, including:
2. The book is also a valuable
reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of
retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Market Perspectives: Through a Glass Darkly.
3. Simultaneous Financial Time Series.
10. Opacity and Present Day Variables.
4. Mallios, PhD, is a consultant at Mallios and Associates,
where he provides professional advisement to various financial, medical,
and educational institutions. Categorical Forecasting.
12. Pseudo Candlestick Graphics for Major League Baseball.
7. Single Equation Adaptive Drift Modeling.
8. Also, anyone
with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the
financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a
William S. A
related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial
forecasting and various links on the topic.
Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented,
and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and
betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical
developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment Learn More
We are going to miss him.”
Said the Dallas Cowboys’ Morris Claiborne, a former teammate of Mathieu’s: “Tyrann deserved the nickname …
Despite missing the game, Mathieu was still a finalist for the Heisman Trophy, awarded to college football’s best player, as a sophomore. Honey badgers are known to scrap with animals many times their size, including lions, and even tangle (successfully) with poisonous snakes.
Miles added, “It’s hard because we all love Tyrann. ESPN reported at the time that the trio tested positive for synthetic marijuana.
The sports network had to add an editor’s note, saying, “This story was published prior to Tyrann Mathieu’s dismissal from LSU’s football program on August 10.”. because the honey badger takes what it wants, and Tyrann takes what he wants on the field,” ESPN reported today in a profile.
It’s been said that Honey Badger don’t care, but what may be more accurate is that Honey Badger don’t play – at least not for the LSU Tigers.
Mathieu and the others were suspended for their team’s game against Auburn.
“This is a very difficult day for our team,” head coach Les Miles said. He also has four picks, 11 forced fumbles and eight fumble recoveries, as well as four touchdowns, two on punt returns and two on fumble returns.
The 5-foot-9, 175-pound Mathieu got his nickname for his fearlessness on the gridiron. However, with that being said, we have a standard that our players are held to and when that standard is not met, there are consequences.”
LSU did not say which team rule Mathieu broke. “We lose a quality person, teammate and contributor to the program. We will do what we can as coaches, teammates, and friends to get him on a path where he can have success. In addition to winning the Chuck Bednarik Award, given to the top defensive player, he came in fifth in Heisman voting with 34 first-place votes and was the only defensive player among 10 finalists.
The team, which played in last year’s national college football championship game, announced this afternoon that their top player and arguably the nation’s best cornerback, Tyrann Mathieu, has been dismissed for violating team policy.
According to LSU, the Columbus, Ohio, native who attended high school in New Orleans, has registered 133 tackles – 16 for a loss – in 26 games for the Tigers. The 20-year-old All-American ran into trouble last year when he and two other players violated the team’s drug policy Learn More
You end up with $5,200 in gambling losses.
Section 61 of the Internal Revenue code is pretty clear:
“gross income” must be reported and includes “all income from whatever source derived.”
If betting on the lottery is your thing, then hold on to your ticket stubs. Don’t ask me why, but I usually come home with more money than I left with. (Can you already see where this case is headed?)
Like a lot of retirees, my husband and I like to occasionally head to one of the riverboat casinos about an hour from our home. Supreme Court has ruled that for an activity to be elevated from the level of “hobby” to constitute a “trade or business” it must be “pursued full time, in good faith, and with regularity, to the production of income for a livelihood.”*
In some cases, the sponsor of the contest will provide you with Form W-2G spelling out the exact value of your winnings and whether any federal tax was withheld. in favor of a taxpayer. Thanks to an audit, the I.R.S. explained that three conditions must exist for an activity to be considered “gambling.” There must be: 1) a prize, (2) a chance, and 3) consideration paid by contestants.
If you miraculously win the magazine sweepstakes, you won’t be able to use your lotto losses to offset this income. (With tangible prizes you have to report the cash value.)
You’d better report it, too.
Document Your Deduction!
What would have helped Remos? A running diary of the dates he gambled, the amounts wagered, amounts won, and any expenses incurred. 23
This point was painfully driven home to Bill Remos last year. Publications 529, “Miscellaneous Deductions,” and 525, “Taxable and Nontaxable Income.” You can download these from the I.R.S. I know we’re supposed to report these winnings but I’m not sure if I need a special tax form or can put this on the 1040-EZ we usually file? Can I deduct my losses?
. It’s not a lot, but when you’re living on Social Security an extra $50-100 is a big help. website, www.irs.gov, or order them by calling 1-800-TAX-FORM.
Click here to visit FOXBusiness.com’s Tax Planning page.
Thanks for your help,
Unfortunately, if you have gambling income, the only income tax form you can use is the long, “Form 1040.” The total amount of your winnings for the year is entered on Line 21.
This week, Gail explains how you need to deal with those big gambling wins (you hope)!
Provided you’ve kept good records, you can deduct your gambling losses. discovered that Remos had failed to report $50,000 he’d won at blackjack in 1999 and ordered him to pay back taxes plus a penalty for “underpayment” of taxes.
No Wager, No Gamble
It’s important to note that sweepstakes winnings may or may not be considered “gambling income.” It depends upon whether contestants are required to purchase anything. In other words, did you put up something of value, i.e. You also respond to those contests aimed at generating magazine subscriptions where the chance of winning is one-in-a-gazillion. You don’t need the casino or racetrack to sign off on the record you keep, you just need to document how much you bet and the payouts you received.
If you have a question for Gail Buckner and the Your $ Matters column, send them to: email@example.com , along with your name and phone number.
Furthermore, you can only deduct losses up to the amount of your winnings- you can’t deduct losses over and above the amount you win. This includes the proceeds from such things as betting on horses, slot machines, black jack, bingo, the lottery, etc. In court, he submitted a computer printout from the casino that listed such things as “money in” and “money out,” but he couldn’t explain how the numbers were generated. Instead, they are considered a “Miscellaneous Itemized Deduction.” This means that your gambling losses won’t reduce your tax bill unless they, and the other items you list under “Miscellaneous Itemized Deductions” (such as tax return preparation fees and home office expenses) add up to more than 2% of your Adjusted Gross Income.
In a Technical Advice Memorandum (T.A.M.) issued in 2004, the I.R.S. In case you have any doubts, re-read paragraph two above. The court is very clear that the burden of proof is on the taxpayer to demonstrate s/he sustained any losses.
What if you’re a professional gambler? In this case, you can deduct your gambling losses as a business expense on Schedule C. is going to police the bingo game played in the church basement. Furthermore, let’s assume that when you enter these contests you don’t take the bait, i.e. the amount of those losses on the basis of the record at hand.” He lost the case.
You can find out more about reporting gambling winnings/deductions from I.R.S. you send in your entry but don’t sign up for any magazines.
The Tax Court acknowledged that although Remos “most likely had some gambling losses during the year, we are unable to determine… take a gamble?
Over the course of the year, although you spend $5,200 on lotto tickets, you never hit the jackpot. For instance, if your total gambling winnings amount to $2000 and your losses add up to $2,500, the maximum amount you can list as a Miscellaneous Itemized Deduction is $2,000.
*[Groetzinger], 87-1 USTC Paragraph 9191,480 U.S. It’s a lot of fun, plus they provide a free dinner. But you don’t do this by subtracting them from the total amount of your winnings. The benefit is there is no 2% threshold you have to exceed- every dollar is deductible. But if your prize comes to more than a few bucks, there’s a good chance the organization sponsoring the activity is going to report it to the I.R.S.
To see how this might come into play, suppose you spend $10 per week on lotto tickets. It doesn’t matter if your Learn More
Two of his former assistants, neither of whom played ball, have become general managers on other teams, and the Red Sox won their first championship in 86 years using greater reliance on statistical analysis.
And he said that the sometimes grudging acceptance of his methods of using statistical analysis to determine how to build a winner has changed the market for players and made things tougher for small-revenue clubs such as his.
But the general manager of the small-revenue Oakland Athletics has become just that. They look like the Goldman Sachs arbitrage desk,” he told the conference. That’s humbling.”
The book detailed how Beane and other executives at the hand-to-mouth A’s used statistical analysis rather than just traditional scouting methods to identify and acquire under-valued players who could help their team win.
For a look at baseball’s upcoming spending spree, click here.
For more on the business of sports, click here.
And win they did, as the team has the fifth best record in baseball since he took the reins in 1998, and is only a win or two behind a couple of the biggest spending teams during that time: the Boston Red Sox and St.
For view of the “Moneyball” theory when the book first came out, click here.
Afterwards, Beane told me he’s amazed by the recognition that he’s gotten from the world of business since Lewis’ book.
Changes limited outside baseball
“I don’t know anything about cricket, but I guess Australia and India are like the Yankees and Red Sox and New Zealand is the Oakland of cricket,” he said with a laugh.
The NBA’s Seattle Sonics has made a greater push for unique statistical analysis to give the team an edge. But overall the changes in football and basketball are less widespread than in baseball.
“We’re trying to find micro-cap players and pay for future performance and eliminating paying top dollars for veterans whose peak performance is in the past,” he told attendees at Fortune magazine’s “Innovation Forum” in New York this week.
“Robert Rubin wrote me a letter,” he said. “That’s flattering. “We just didn’t have a choice. Beane was able to get some high on-base percentage players at bargain prices.
Beane faced a lot of hostility to his calls to change the way the talent is judged, particularly from scouts and other executives who felt threatened.
“Today the opportunities are diminishing quickly, and to me it’s a product of some extremely bright people running teams,” he said “In 10 years the front offices are going to look like arbitrage departments.”
The A’s strategy of using more statistical analysis has spread across the sport, as teams turned to young college-educated analysts rather than former players to make decisions on players. Having less than your competitor is never an advantage.”
But Beane’s modesty when speaking to executives at the Fortune forum also seemed to confirm that a competitive disadvantage found in baseball more than football or basketball was the mother of his form of innovation.
Beane said he’s convinced his methods would work even better in leagues with those restrictions on the labor market.
Five years ago most fans and executives paid attention to a hitter’s batting average, which said how often they got a hit to reach base, rather than his on-base percentage, which said how often they reached base by hit or walk. We had the change the dynamics to keep up with the other teams.”
“Do I wish everybody in baseball had the same amount to spend? Absolutely,” said Beane. Louis Cardinals.
“It wasn’t that we were innovative,” he told the group. He became famous outside the world of sports fans when he was subject of the 2003 book “Moneyball” by Michael Lewis.
“The market has significantly corrected itself,” he said. “At some point, the disadvantage of being a small-market team is that the inefficiencies will be weeded out. “On-base percentage is the now the highest paid statistic in the game.”
The only team from outside of baseball to pick up the phone and call Beane to ask for advice is the national cricket team of New Zealand, which sent a group of executives to Oakland to shadow Beane and his staff and learn their lessons.
I suggested to Beane that it was the salary cap and revenue sharing in football and basketball that have slowed the adoption of his methods in those sports, that without as free a market, and as great a disparity in payrolls, there isn’t nearly the incentive to shake things up and go against the “old boys club,” as he describes the former look of the baseball front office.
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) –
But while baseball is changing in this way, the nation’s other team sports are making far less moves towards changing the way they operate.
“The front offices no longer look like good-old-boys clubs. “In 10 years I won’t be able to apply for this job.”
Because of those shifts, Beane said it’s only going to get tougher for the small-revenue team to make up for their limitations by being smarter and finding value.
Billy Beane says he’s an unlikely choice for being the business world’s favorite sports executive. Learn More
But new laws across the nation are rolling the rules back — and lawmakers think they’re holding a royal flush.
Mega-entrepreneur Richard Branson’s Virgin Group is the latest entry in online gambling, teaming with the Tropicana Resort in Atlantic City and online game maker Gamesys to bring online poker, blackjack and slots to New Jersey this week. U.K. will generate – in addition to tax revenue from the proceeds at casinos – approximately 22,000 new online gambling-related jobs, Freeman testified.
Prohibition failed – again
Last month, the president and CEO of the American Gaming Association testified before Congress and urged legislators to repeal their 7-year-old ban on Internet gambling.
“In sports gambling, it’s about the bet,” DeGaris said. “That’s where I see the huge potential in online gambling, and I reckon the U.S.
“Those from other states can play, but they cannot wager,” Fenton said. Not just poker.”
What happens online, stays online
Six other firms, including popular companies like WSOP.com and Ultimate Poker and other casinos like Caesars and the Golden Nugget, participated in the “soft play” launch of online gambling in New Jersey in November, the state’s Department of Gaming Enforcement Director Dave Rebuck said during a recent conference call.
“Last year, before a single state authorized legal online gaming, Americans spent nearly $3 billion on illegal, unregulated offshore gaming sites. “The federal government has tried the prohibition approach – specifically the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 and the Wire Act – and through multiple Justice Department crackdowns on offshore operators as well.”
Not everyone agrees with the odds. “The technology is rolling out this week.”
“It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out,” said Laurence DeGaris, associate professor of marketing at the University of Indianapolis and an expert in Internet culture.
To prevent unauthorized access, Virgin Casino physically locates gamers’ cellphones periodically. They play against the house at Virgin Casino, and they can finance their wagers with debit cards, credit cards, or in person.
Legalizing gambling across the U.S. market could be worth as much as $9 billion in the coming years as other states, including California, legalize online wagering.
“Slots and roulette are very visceral games, lots of bells and whistles. “Blackjack, slots. H2 said the industry was worth $33 billion in 2013, with $4.5 billion coming from mobile gambling on iPads, iPhones and smartphones.
. That doesn’t translate online,” DeGaris told FoxNews.com. To put that into further context, Americans accounted for nearly 10 percent of the entire $33 billion worldwide online gaming market,” Freeman said.
And New Jersey isn’t alone; eight other states have bills in the works that will allow Internet gambling as well. — notably sports betting.
- Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the American Gaming Association
Globally, the business is even more lucrative. Nevada and Delaware also began offering some online gambling last year, but New Jersey is the first state to “fully” legalize it, said Lee Fenton, the chief operating officer of Gamesys.
But analysts are mostly rolling with Christie and the casinos. If your phone is off, or if you’re too near state borders, you may not be allowed to play.
“There will be many games to play online in New Jersey,” Fenton told FoxNews.com. Chris Christie validated the vice in the waning weeks of 2013, saying he hoped to rake in $1 billion in casino revenues this year, of which the state will collect a 17 percent tax.
Many Americans simply ignored the ban, he noted, as the country did during Prohibition in the ’20s.
‘Last year, before a single state authorized legal online gaming, Americans spent nearly $3 billion.’
Players must be at least 21 years old, and either reside in New Jersey or be in the state when they place their bets. market research firm H2 Gambling Capital, which focuses on the gaming industry, predicted about $300 million for New Jersey’s online casinos — or about $45 million in tax revenue, according to the New York Times. Others predict the overall U.S. “Blackjack and poker have a very human element that’s lost online. In online casino gambling, it’s about the game more than the bet.”
Congress banned online gambling in 2006. Virgin could be holding a full house, but it could also fail before the flop.
Freeman said the Department of Justice has relaxed its views toward online gambling since 2011, and this could open up even more opportunities in the U.S. “If we are unable to determine that you are in New Jersey, you will be unable to play on Virgin Casino,” the site notes. Gov. will catch up to the rest of the world and allow it at some point.”
“Prohibition simply does not work,” Geoff Freeman told a House panel on Dec. 10 Learn More
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The easiest way to do this and avoid auction fever, with the resulting over payment, is to set up autobid. Be certain to make your auction listing better than the one that did not sell, or adjust the closing time of the auction a bit to help improve the selling price.
Make money with Ebay at home is both an excellent and legitimate way to earn extra money fast. Autobid allows you to make your initial bid and then authorize your bids to rise at a set amount if someone else out bids your offer. If you are careful in your research and look for high quality, high profit margin items to resell you will easily be able to generate a solid income through the use of Ebay arbitrage. Most auctions closing in prime time will go for prices either at or above market value, although some will close lower than they should. First, it helps if you have an idea of what collectibles and other unique goods are worth. People who make money from arbitrage buy low and sell at a higher rate without holding onto the product or commodity for more time than is absolutely necessary. Focusing on unique products with high desirability will allow you to turn over your merchandise quickly enough to keep even the most rabid bargain hunter browsing through your Ebay stores looking for your best and latest deals.
Upon winning an item you should make your payment immediately to the seller via Paypal to speed the transaction. Knowing your prices is helpful, but not essential to your success. One other point, your auction listings must also close with enough time for you to have the item mailed to you before you can reship it to another, so be careful of your time frames. Another advantage of using the autobid feature is that you do not need to baby sit the auctions you are bidding on at any time, the program does it for you. Even more astonishing is how rapidly you can build a full store inventory of highly profitable items with very little front money. The only thing you are after is a way under priced product that you can relist immediately and resell quickly for a profit. They make their money off the flux in prices in the marketplace.
Making money selling with Ebay arbitrage is not difficult, but you will need a few basic skills to get you started. Time is money, so limit the amount of time the item is in your possession to maximize your profitability.
Once you have done your basic price research, you will know the possible upside potential of the items you are thinking about buying to resell. Usually these items have very poorly written auction listings, new sellers, or sellers with questionable feedback ratings. Make the decision on an item and move on looking for other great items to resell.
What You Will Need to Make Money on Ebay with Arbitrage
Arbitrage on Ebay is just exactly what you may be thinking.
One of the best make home from money with Ebay strategies ever is Ebay Arbitrage. Do give yourself every opportunity to improve the selling price of your Ebay auction listings. Go to the advanced search section, put in the description title of the item as it is listed and tick the box which shows closed auctions. If you have some money to invest and don’t mind waiting a bit to maximize your returns selling through an Ebay store is a good way to accomplish your goals. With autobid, you set the upper limit of your bidding range so there is no worry that you will end up paying more than you wanted to for the item. You look for very low priced items at auction which are closing soon and are a steal to purchase. Your search will now bring up the history of the closing prices of similar items and what they have closed for. Utilizing both a storefront to lower selling costs and auction listings for fast product turn over and store promotion is a useful strategy.
The higher your potential profit margins the better your chances of making a solid return on your investment for your time. Ebay stores are much less expensive for volume listings and will result in lower overall selling fees increasing your profit margins. In general though, auctions closing at less peak traffic times or on slower days will be where the values are most easily found. Provide one and you will make the sale.
After you have established that you have an item which is potentially profitable, you can go ahead and place your bid. As a rule, auctions closing during the evening hours throughout the week and during daytime hours to early evenings on the weekends do the best price wise. If you have enough money to let your items sit around for awhile before you resell them, making use of an Ebay store rather than auctions is a good way to go. You will also need to take the condition of the item and the number of listing competing into consideration when making your selections. As soon as you have sent your payment, rewrite and relist the item for auction. The higher your potential profit margin, the lower you can list your auctions to guarantee the auction will close with bids. What is arbitrage exactly? The term arbitrage comes from the financial world and means the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same product or commodity. Take a look at the auction listings and see how the ones with the highest closing prices were written and then incorporate the basic layout in your auction listing.
How to Make Money on Ebay. Look for items with at least 200% markup wherever possible and a solid history of 50% or better auctions closing as sales. You are looking for items with huge value that you can pick up for a pittance, relist either at Learn More
Speaking about his humanitarian works, Soros once said, “I’m not doing my philanthropic work, out of any kind of guilt, or any need to create good public relations. Soros graduated from the prestigious London School of Economics, in 1952, and obtained an entry-level position with an investment bank namely Singer and Friedlander.
“Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. In 1956, he moved to United States, and started working as a financial analyst. The firm made a spectacular achievement by giving more than a 4000% return within the next ten years.
Childhood and Early Life
George Soros was born on August 12, 1930, in Budapest, Hungary. In 1969, he founded his first offshore hedge fund, which grew immensely through speculation. In August 2006, he wrote an article titled A Self-Defeating War, in the Wall Street Journal. OSI is a private operating and grant making foundation which aims to promote human rights and social reforms. In 1992, Soros earned himself a profit of whopping $1 billion and the title, the man who broke the Bank of England, betting against the Bank of England with $10 billion worth of pounds. He was thirteen, when Hitler’s Wehrmacht seized Hungary and began deporting the country’s Jews to extermination camps. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate the value of that, but they’re not designed to take care of social needs.”
These were the famous words of George Soros, who has made his mark as an enormously successful speculator. As a global financier and philanthropist, George Soros is popularly known for his unmatchable skills related to the field finance and currency speculation. The philanthropic works by him are done through an entity called Open Society Institute (OSI), which was created by him in 1993. I’m doing it because I can afford to do it, and I believe in it.” . One of his most notable humanitarian works is, the generous donations he made in order to eradicate extreme poverty from Africa. He is the chairman of ‘Soros Fund Management’ and the ‘Open Society Institute’, a stock investor, American currency speculator and political activist.
In recent years, Soros has been a vocal critic of America’s military endeavors and foreign policies. In 1970, he co-founded the famous Quantum Fund with the help of Jim Rogers. Soros survived the Nazi invasion of Hungary from March 1944 to 1945, and in 1947, he emigrated to England and supported himself by working as a railroad porter and a restaurant waiter. He is a former member of the Board of Directors of the Council on Foreign Relations.
While studying in London, Soros became acquainted with the work of a philosopher, Karl Popper, which had a great influence on Soros’ intellectual development. The article was in context of the American foreign policies which were applied on several fronts like Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Somalia, and killing of thousands of innocent civilians.
Since the 1970s, George Soros has shown active involvement in philanthropy and social work Learn More
Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..
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College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.
So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport.
Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.
By: Manny G
So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.
The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.
To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.
. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.
So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.
The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.
NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. This may enable you to Learn More
Growth Enterprise Market(GEM) shot up over 10 percent
in the same period, its biggest weekly gain in nearly six years.
* Funds trying to arbitrage major price differences
PUMPING IN LIQUIDITY?
“There are not many good investment opportunities here, so
we would naturally want to hunt for new targets elsewhere,” he
On Wednesday, Chinese investors used the entire 10.5 billion
yuan ($1.69 billion) daily investment quota for
buying Hong Kong stocks under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock
Connect scheme for the first time.
This propelled the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
up 5.8 percent, following a 6.43 percent gain last week, and
helped the Hong Kong exchange reach record volume on Wednesday.
But this time may be different. Domestic fund managers say they are seeking to exploit a
major pricing imbalance between the markets, the result of a
mainland rally that until now showed little sign of spilling
over into Hong Kong.
Shanghai-based hedge fund manager Xia Xiaohui thinks such
price differences cannot last.
Including Wednesday’s gains, China’s CSI300 index
has soared 92 percent during the past year while the Hong Kong
China Enterprises Index is up 29.8 percent.
“With such a big price gap, why don’t I buy stocks in Hong
Kong, especially if it’s the same company?” said Xia, chairman
of Liuhe Capital, which has started buying Hong Kong stocks.
* Previous attempts failed on tepid demand for HK shares
The mainland market is now seen as bubbly without growth,
while Hong Kong has value but lacks liquidity, he said.
By Samuel Shen and Pete Sweeney
“Regulators seem to be very supportive for local funds to
invest in Hong Kong and … there’s real demand and real
interest from local investors.”
“The current huge valuation gap and the excessive liquidity
in mainland funds is raising interest in Hong Kong stocks,” said
UBS strategist Lu Wenjie, noting Chinese small-caps trade at
around 100 times earnings on average, compared with just 10
times for Hong Kong peers.
Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co is launching China’s
first actively-managed mutual fund to invest via the
Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect, describing the Hong Kong market as a
“gold mine”, and “a low-lying land” in terms of valuation.
Borsera Asset Management Co plans to launch a similar fund this
LARGE PRICE GAP
(Reporting by Samuel Shen and Pete Sweeney; Editing by Nachum
Kaplan and Richard Borsuk)
* Chinese funds buying HK shares ahead of Shenzhen pilot
China’s 5 trillion yuan ($807.36 billion) mutual fund
industry is already getting into position.
As a result, mainland-listed blue chips are now about
one-third more expensive than their Hong Kong versions – as
measured by the China-Hong Kong price premium index -
while Chinese dual listed small-caps trade at a premium of 10
times the cost of the same company’s shares in Hong Kong.
* Investors see HK shares as less bubbly than mainland
David Dai, Shanghai-based investor director at Nanhai Fund
Management Co, a hedge fund, said he would buy Hong Kong shares
in part because he thinks valuations on mainland exchanges are
($1 = 6.1930 Chinese yuan)
In the past, arbitrage opportunities proved a mirage. Several days
later, China allowed insurers to buy shares listed on GEM.. In late March, China’s
securities regulator improved access, letting mainland mutual
funds invest in Hong Kong shares via the connector. So lowly-valued Hong Kong stocks are
becoming increasingly attractive to mainland investors,”
Borsera’s fund manager Zhang Xigang said, predicting that
China’s mutual fund industry would soon start pumping liquidity
into Hong Kong.
Small caps expected to become eligible for mainland
investment when the Shenzhen leg of the stock connect opens -
anticipation is for this year – benefited even more. The
Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect not only failed to narrow the
premium after its November launch but actually widened it as
Chinese retail investors declined to move money south.
“With the two markets increasingly connected, this is an
obvious arbitrage opportunity.”
SHANGHAI, April 8 Chinese funds are snapping up
shares in Hong Kong, betting that a link-up between the Shenzhen
and Hong Kong stock exchanges, and easier access for
institutional investors, will yield quick double-digit or even
triple-digit arbitrage profits.
“Water flows downward Learn More